How Much is Enough? How Sure are You?


 YouTube Live Event for Q and A 

Recent Research on the Foundations of Fingerprint Comparison Decisions

Presented by Heidi Eldridge, PhD
Assistant Professor of Forensic Science and Director of Graduate Studies in Crime Scene Investigations
The George Washington University

Wednesday, February 12, 7pm US/Eastern (UTC-05:00)
NCASVideo YouTube Channel:


Fingerprints have long been viewed as infallible -- the "gold standard" when it comes to criminal identification. But recent critical reports and scrutiny have illuminated the fact that fingerprint science, though in use for more than 100 years in the courts, never went through the rigorous process of building a scientific foundation that most scientific endeavors must complete as part of their growing pains. This talk will briefly highlight some of the questions the field is currently grappling with and review the body of research that has sprung up in response.


Dr. Heidi Eldridge
received her MS in Biology from Duke University and her PhD in Forensic Science from the University of Lausanne (Switzerland).  She spent approximately 11 years working in state, local, and regional forensic laboratories where she performed casework in controlled substances, latent prints, and crime scene analysis and reconstruction including bloodstain pattern interpretation, shooting reconstruction, event analysis, biological screening, and serial number restoration. From 2015 to 2022, she was a full-time forensic science researcher at RTI International, where she completed internally- and externally-funded research on the suitability decision in latent prints, establishing a baseline discipline error rate estimate for palmar comparisons, recognizing warning factors for close non-matches in latent prints, and human factors in forensic science. Dr. Eldridge is current Chair of the Friction Ridge Consensus Body of the American Standards Board (ASB) and of the Forensic Science Education Programs Accreditation Commission (FEPAC). She sits on the Boards of Directors of both the International Association for Identification (IAI) and the ASB and is a Fellow of the American Academy of Forensic Sciences (AAFS) and is chair of the Friction Ridge Subcommittee of the Organization of Scientific Area Committees (OSAC) for Forensic Science. Additionally, Dr. Eldridge sits on the Editorial Board of the Journal of Forensic Identification and is a peer-reviewer for several other forensic science journals. Dr. Eldridge is a Certified Latent Print Examiner with the IAI.

 

Shadow of a Doubt - February 2025

 

  • Lecture February 2025 - How Much is Enough? How Sure are You? Recent Research on the Foundations of Fingerprint Comparison Decisions - Dr. Heidi Eldridge

  • February Bay Area Skeptics Lecture  Dr. Mohamed Noor, a professor of biology at Duke University, will discuss his book, Live Long and Evolve: What Star Trek Can Teach Us about Evolution, Genetics, and Life on Other Worlds
  •  Peter Hotez, MD, PhD, Professor of Pediatrics and Molecular Virology & Microbiology at Baylor College of Medicine, will appear on the next Skeptical Inquirer Presents live online event, Thursday, February 20 at 7 PM ET, "Countering the Next Phase of American Anti-Vaccine Activism."  
  •  Torn From Today's Headlines By Scott Snell - Year-round Standard Time vs Year-Round Daylight Saving Time vs Clock-Changing
  • Larry Kusche (1940-2024)
  • Shadow Light
  • Time to Renew
See the complete February 2025 Shadow

December 5, 7:00 pm - The Latest Evidence for the Apollo Landings - RESCHEDULED

 YouTube Live Event for Q and A 

Marty McGuire
Amateur Astronomer ("Backyard Astronomy Guy")

Thursday, December 5, 7pm US/Eastern (UTC-05:00)
NCASVideo YouTube Channel:

A 2021 poll* of US adults asked, “In your opinion, how likely is it that the following [scenario is] true? The 1969 landing on the moon didn’t occur and was actually staged somewhere in Arizona.

The results showed that 27% answered with “not sure,” “probably true,” or “definitely true!”

This poll isn’t an outlier.  It’s consistent with another poll** taken that year, showing 29% with similar responses!

Especially concerning is that these beliefs are more prevalent among younger generations, those born after 1980.

We skeptics have seen this situation play out again and again--an evidence-based rational claim is rejected by a sizable portion of the public, which instead supports an apparently absurd alternative explanation for the evidence.  What can we do?

Our next speaker has stepped up to the challenge.  On his own initiative, Marty McGuire (the “Backyard Astronomy Guy” of Bethlehem, Pennsylvania) examined the publicly available online science data compiled by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO).  ISRO’s Chandrayaan-2 spacecraft has surveyed the Moon’s surface from orbit for several years.  In April 2021, it flew especially close to the Apollo 11 and 12 landing sites, obtaining the best images of those historic sites since 1969.


Mr. McGuire will demonstrate how he was able to (as anyone who wants to have a look for themselves can) obtain the raw images from ISRO and process them.  He’s shared the instructions and images across social media for the benefit of any other “do it yourself” researchers.  He and NCAS President Scott Snell (an engineer for NASA’s Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter) will discuss this and other evidence of the Apollo landings.

Mr. McGuire, a marketing director for a community bank by day, is also a “NASA Solar System Ambassador” volunteer, communicating the science and excitement of NASA's space exploration missions and discoveries with people in his community.  By night he is an amateur astronomer, known online as the “Backyard Astronomy Guy.”

* The Economist/YouGov Poll, “Belief in Conspiracy Theories,” https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/w2zmwpzsq0/econTabReport.pdf
** University of New Hampshire, Carsey School of Public Policy, “Conspiracy vs. Science: A Survey of U.S. Public Beliefs,” https://scholars.unh.edu/carsey/448/

 

Steven Hassan Discusses His Book, The Cult of Trump

 

November 14, 2024

NCAS Public Lecture Series

Steven Hassan Discusses His Book, The Cult of Trump


 YouTube Live Event with Q and A 

Steven Hassan, PhD

Thursday, November 14, 7pm US/Eastern (UTC-05:00)
NCASVideo YouTube Channel:




In The Cult of Trump, mind control and licensed mental health expert Steven Hassan draws parallels between Donald Trump and people like Jim Jones, David Koresh, Ron Hubbard, and Sun Myung Moon, arguing that Trump's presidency was in many ways like a destructive cult. He specifically details the ways in which people are influenced through an array of social psychology methods and how they become fiercely loyal and obedient. Hassan was a former “Moonie” himself, and he presents a “thoughtful and well-researched analysis of some of the most puzzling aspects of the [Trump] presidency, including the remarkable passivity of fellow Republicans [and] the gross pandering of many members of the press” (Thomas G. Gutheil, MD and professor of psychiatry, Harvard Medical School).


About the Author (courtesy of Simon & Schuster):
Steven Hassan, PhD, is a mental health professional and forensics expert who has been helping people leave destructive cults since 1976 after he was deprogrammed from the Moon cult by his family. He directs the Freedom of Mind Resource Center, a consulting and media production company, based in Massachusetts. He is the author of the books, Combating Cult Mind Control and Freedom of Mind: Helping Loved Ones Leave Controlling People, Cults and Beliefs. Dr. Hassan’s expertise has been featured in major media outlets such as CNN, ABC, NBC, and The New York Times. He has developed The BITE Model™, the world’s first scientifically validated construct for evaluating authoritarian control, and hosts the podcast, The Influence Continuum.